The announcement this week by Liberal party leader Tony Abbott that he would set a cap on migration levels ( 1.4 per cent of the population, or 170,000 annually) has fuelled debate on the coming Australian election.
Both parties are broadly agreed that immigration numbers need to be controlled ; however Mr Abbott’s figures are controversial for two reasons :-
(i) His decision to set a cap at all is extremely risky. It is normally the needs of a country’s labour market that dictate the numbers needed rather than government policy and the Liberal Party’s stance has already come under fire from Australian business leaders.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Peter Anderson says it is difficult to get rational debate in an election campaign, particularly when the issue of border protection is mixed up with the need for skilled migration and broader population policy.
“This is very damaging to the national interest because it fails to recognise our economy requires a judicious mix of skilled migration and natural increase for the next 50 years,” he says. “Our growth forecasts on returning the budget to surplus and improving our standard of living depend on our economy getting bigger, and that requires skilled migration.”
(ii) The figures of “net” migration are open to interpretation and dispute. Australia’s immigration levels of nearly 300,000 in 2008-09 and 230,000 in 2009-10 were inflated by expats returning home because of the global financial crisis and more New Zealanders coming over looking for work, according to commentators. It is expected that net migration numbers will fall naturally over the coming years as student and 457 visa holders return home.
And the fact that the Liberal Party have set a target figure at all is also not going down well with the business community.
The Australian National University’s director of the Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Peter McDonald, says: “I don’t think that it is sensible to have a target, no country in the world does that.”
The debate is likely to rage for some while yet…